Stock market information for Bitcoin (BTC)
- Bitcoin is a crypto in the CRYPTO market.
- The price is 109898.0 USD currently with a change of 271.00 USD (0.00%) from the previous close.
- The intraday high is 110491.0 USD and the intraday low is 109441.0 USD.
Is November the New October? Analyst Says It’s Bitcoin’s Strongest Month — Here’s the Data
By The Vagabond News Editorial Desk | November 2, 2025
Seasonal Shift in Crypto Timing
For years, cryptocurrency traders have baked a mantra into strategy: “It’s Uptober.” October has been celebrated as the most favourable month for Bitcoin, the time when the digital asset often churns out strong gains. But the script may now be flipping. Recent analysis suggests that November may be emerging as Bitcoin’s strongest month.
Analyst commentary cited by Investors.com notes that historical data shows an average gain of about 46 % for November since about 2013—greater than the average 22 % gain for October. (Investors.com)
Moreover, a separate dataset points to an even sharper average: “average gain of 42.78% in November since 2013, with median return 7.12%.” (Markets)
In short: while October still has pull, November is gaining ground—and perhaps overtaking.
What the Data Shows
- Since 2013, according to Markets.com, Bitcoin’s average “opening-to-closing” monthly return in November is about 42.78%. (Markets)
- The median return for those Novembers is 7.12%, indicating that while the average is high, results are skewed by outliers. (Medium)
- By comparison, in October, Bitcoin had historically strong performance: some sources point to roughly 19.4% average gain since 2014 for October. (MarketWatch)
- Recent change: in October 2025, Bitcoin recorded its first monthly loss in October since 2018, breaking a seven-year stretch of October gains. (Reuters)
These figures suggest a changing seasonality pattern: traders who counted on “Uptober” may now have to watch “November” instead.
Why November Might Be Getting Stronger
A few possible reasons behind this shift:
- Event timing: Major institutional flows, ETF approvals and regulatory news are increasingly landing in November, lifting demand for Bitcoin.
- Calendar mechanics: Many market participants adjust portfolios ahead of year-end; November is often when strategic bets are placed for the final quarter.
- October’s volatility catch-up: If Bitcoin stretches into new highs in October, the momentum may carry into November instead of peaking early.
- Media & narrative: As the “Uptober” story becomes conventional wisdom, it may lose its edge; savvy traders might prefer positioning for November instead, creating a self-fulfilling effect.
That said, seasonal trends are never guarantees, especially in an asset as volatile as Bitcoin.
Risks & Cautions
- Despite a high average for November, the median return (7.12%) shows many Novembers deliver modest gains—or even losses. Outlier years (e.g., 2013’s +449%) skew averages. (Medium)
- Reliance on historical monthly patterns might give false confidence. External shocks — macroeconomic shifts, regulatory changes, technological disruptions — still drive Bitcoin’s price.
- As noted in academic studies: Bitcoin returns remain heavy-tailed and unpredictable despite monthly patterns. (arXiv)
- The recent break in October’s winning streak reminds traders that norms can change quickly.
The Vagabond View
For investors, the takeaway is this: yes, the data suggest November may now harbour more upside for Bitcoin than October—and the “Uptober” mantra may be outdated. But this signals opportunity, not certainty.
If you’re tracking Bitcoin this year, go into November alert: historical tailwinds might be stronger, but the risk environment remains just as intense. Use the pattern as a frame, not as a guarantee.
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