OPEC+ Weighs Small Oil Output Hike for December Ahead of Key Meeting
By The Vagabond News Editorial Desk | November 2, 2025
Modest Increase on the Table
Key members of OPEC+ — led by OPEC and its allies including Saudi Arabia and Russia — are discussing a small output rise of about 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December. (Business Standard)
The figure matches the increases seen in October and November. (Business Standard)
Why the Cautious Approach?
- Since April, OPEC+ has raised its quotas by over 2.7 million bpd—roughly 2.5 % of global supply. (Investing.com)
- Analysts warn of a looming oversupply in 2026 as demand growth cools and non-OPEC production rises. (Business Standard)
- Some members, like Russia, face production‐capacity constraints and western sanctions, limiting how much they can increase. (Investing.com)
Meeting and Mechanics
The OPEC+ group is set to meet online this coming Sunday to finalise the December output decision. (Investing.com)
While a 137,000 bpd rise is the “base case,” one delegate said a decision to pause further increases remains on the table. (Investing.com)
Market Implications
- Oil prices have recovered from a recent five-month low (~US $60 per barrel) to around US $65, supported by geopolitics and supply disruption fears. (Investing.com)
- A small hike signals OPEC+ is balancing between regaining market share and avoiding an oversupplied market.
- If demand fails to pick up, even modest production increases could further weigh on prices and complicate budgeting for oil producing states.
The Vagabond View
OPEC+’s readiness to proceed with a modest output hike instead of a larger one reveals the group’s hedging strategy in a volatile market. The decision underscores how producers are now navigating slower demand growth, capacity constraints, and geopolitical risks all at once.
For consumers and global markets alike, the decision will send a signal: even the world’s dominant oil cartel is exercising caution.
